Executive summary of the Hatch report has been leaked. My first take on it is it is like most executive summaries --- there's something in it for everyone,(although I think it slanted towards the oil and gas industry in that regard), and its missing a lot of things one might have expected to find in there too.
Other groups like FFAN, LAMP are going through the public health aspects that are missing. They are pointing out as we do that the report is not really an accurate portrayal of what will or could happen, given Tamboran have indicated that to have a commercially successful gas project in Fermanagh, thousands of wells are needed whereas the Hatch report only considers a maximum of 34 wells in a 29 year period.
Does the Department really believe that once granted a licence that TRUK would actually be able to get investment if they were only going to drill 34 wells in a 29 year period ?
When effects are considered then it seems that Hatch can see no economic benefit in the no development scenario. But that would seem to indicate there is no economic value in a healthy population and a clean environment. That statement on its own shows how some of these consultancy reports are essentially not worth the paper they are written on. It is to deny a whole area of economics called externalities doesn't exist.
"The Government's position must be informed by and consistent with the future direction of the proposed NI energy strategy. The DfE is currently reviewing this, with this study forming part of the evidence it will consider." (Point 21)
Unfortunately the new proposed Energy strategy is being developed by a Government Department which has a legal obligation to promote gas, and which worryingly refuses to remove itself from that bind, even though another report stated it should do so. That other report - the University of Exeter report also cautioned that the Department was influenced in policy by both big business and political parties.
The proposed energy strategy is also full of Hydrogen. Hydrogen will have a niche part to play in our energy mix, but its being positioned by the oil and gas industry to play a role which isn't the best for the climate or the citizen, but which is best for gas transmission companies.
It was announced during COP26 that the UK will no longer allow new gas boiler installations from 2035, yet companies like SGN have a schedule for having 40000 customers boarded by 2055 in order to break even on the Gas to the West project. That has now effectively become 40K customers by 2035, unless they can develop another use for the Gas to the West pipeline. We now see the Gas transmission companies attempting to sell Hydrogen as a viable alternative to heating homes when it is anything but. SGN talk about hydrogen also, and these companies like to confuse us by talking about clean hydrogen, low carbon hydrogen etc.. but virtually all our hydrogen today comes from fossil fuels.
Hydrogen from fossil fuels, even with carbon capture and storage will be worse for the climate than just burning the gas itself. Studies show it is six times more efficient to heat a home using electricity directly than creating hydrogen using electricity and then burning that hydrogen to heat a home. Because of capacity constraint in renewable generation, the UK Government (and some Northern Irish political parties) is talking about the need to generate hydrogen from fossil fuel in the short term, until renewable electricity becomes more available.
The argument for using hydrogen generated from fossil fuels, will open the door to the argument that it would be better if Northern Ireland used its own gas resources to create the hydrogen. Even if its just to leave the door open to exploration our licensing laws are such that the likes of Tamboran and EHA could end up with thirty year petroleum licences, if the Executive do not act immediately when the Economy Minister, Lyons brings petroleum licensing policy options to the Executive to ensure a prohibition on petroleum licensing becomes new policy.
The question for our MLAs, and more importantly the Ministers in the Executive, are you going to develop policy on Energy to suit the oil and gas industry, or are you going to develop policy that is in the public interest? On October 13th 2020 the Assembly voted in a motion that the public interest is to cease petroleum licensing in Northern Ireland and to legislate to leave Northern Ireland's oil and gas resources in the ground. Our Executive must act in the public interest, not in the commercial interests of the oil and gas lobby.
